Foto: Women working in fields in northeastern Syria in 2010.  A new report suggests extreme drought in Syria was most likely a factor in the violent uprising that began there in 2011. Credit Louai Beshara/Agence France-Presse — Getty Image

Een groep wetenschappers van de Columbia University, Manhattan, New York, heeft onderzoek gedaan en komt tot de conclusie dat de burgeroorlog duidelijk mede veroorzaakt is door klimaatverandering. De droogte sinds 2006 heeft het land dermate gedestabiliseerd dat de bevolking naar de wapens heeft gegrepen vanwege voedselgebrek.

Columbia University ligt op 100 meter van en heeft banden met het NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS, waarvan James Hansen ruim 30 jaar directeur was. Hansen is nog verbonden aan Columbia University.

James Hansen to Lead New Program on Climate Science and Policy

syria-map-500

In 2006-2010, an unprecedented drought (brown areas) spread across much of Turkey, Syria and Iraq—the so-called Fertile Crescent. In part due to unsustainable farming practices and government mismanagement, Syria was especially vulnerable to its effects. (NASA)

BNR rapporteert erover.

Is de burgeroorlog in Syrië een klimaatoorlog?

Mark Beekhuis spreekt met onderzoekster. 7 minuten.

Het is belangrijk dat de rol van klimaatopwarming in deze oorlog nu eindelijk meer aandacht krijgt. Interessant is dat het onderzoek gedaan is in samenwerking van klimaatwetenschappers en sociale wetenschappers.

Nieuwsbericht van Earth Institute, Colombia University

Did Climate Change Help Spark The Syrian War?

National Geographic:

Climate Change Helped Spark Syrian War, Study Says

New York Times:

Researchers Link Syrian Conflict to a Drought Made Worse by Climate Change

De publicatie, PNAS:

Abstract online. Artikel helaas niet gratis.

Supporting Material wel gratis .pnas.201421533SI(syria)

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

Significance

There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.

Abstract

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

Dit onderzoek was natuurlijk uitgebreid en met zeer veel analyses van een verscheidenheid aan bronnen, maar wijzelf rapporteerden al veel eerder, ik schreef 5 maanden geleden dit:

Syrische Klimaatvluchtelingen